The independent dealer channel is on the verge of big changes, many driven by new technologies.
As we polish the crystal ball and attempt to look into the future, let’s take a step back and review the previous decade. This exercise offers us a good idea of how long it takes for new technology to develop, as well as provides a perspective of what is driving the change.
For example, look at how long it took managed print services (MPS) to become widely adopted. Xerox developed this concept in the 1990s as Office Document Assessment. However, consider the time it took for dealers to recognize that “selling big iron” was a significant part of their future. These advances in strategic thinking go hand-in-hand with the availability of price points that make the return on investment attractive.
This forecast is an easy one to write because the thrust of change in 2020 is coming from artificial intelligence and augmented reality. I am reminded of what Jules Verne said when asked if he really did believe that submarines could stay underwater indefinitely, or how future explorers would be able to journey to the moon.
“What one man can dream, another man can do,” was Verne’s response.
How does that pertain to our industry? Beginning in the next decade, the intelligent devices that dealers will be called upon to sell will essentially look like an A4 printer. The difference is that kits will be provided by the manufacturer to address speed, apps, functionality, voice, and communication, which will all be provided as options. The concept is that features are added to the basic device in the form of chips. It will essentially be a build-your-own approach.
The mainframes can be adopted, modified, or changed simply by adding or removing chips. Future dealers will be able to create devices that are communication hubs and still perform a print function. Large accounts will have hundreds of these devices, but each one will be configured to conform to the demands of the individual departments. Accounting, legal, sales, manufacturing, admin, HR, and even graphic design will all be addressed. Verticals such as healthcare and education will also be addressed in this manner.
The OEMs will, of course, make a basic box that for the lower ranges of the SMB space—less than 50 employees—or for large bids such as school systems and universities.
That will take care of the hardware, but what changes will come for the soft side of the business?
Dealers that have successfully wrestled with managed IT services will have a significant advantage as products implementing augmented reality and robotics come into play.
Companies such as HP have developed augmented reality to demonstrate a product and provide training for servicing the printer. This entails how to change cartridges and other simple functions, which will only increase in sophistication as the technology becomes more fully evolved.
One of the most significant drivers for AI and augmented reality are the Japanese’s concerns about their aging population. Like virtually all Western societies, the largest segments of the population are aging. In Japanese culture, the young are looked upon to take care of the old. In Japan, business understands fully there are not enough young people to accomplish that arduous task in the next decade. Hence, their focus is on robotics and the need to develop the necessary intelligence to do more than basic functions.
The manufacturers that feed the independent dealer channel will produce these types of products. The question then becomes, who will sell them? The answer is independent distribution—the independent dealer.
The natural evolution of technology is the first driver, and social change that threatens a culture’s basic sense of responsibility for the aged is the second. Is there a third?
We think there is. The third is the challenge of reducing costs for manufacturing. That is why we fundamentally believe industrial printing is the next and biggest change that will impact our industry.
Talk to any commercial printer that has been in business for more than 15 years and they will tell you that they have lost 50% of the jobs they had just five to six years ago.
Those printers with a sense of the changing commercial environment are already engaging in manufacturing attractive boxes for retailers and for promotional events.
You walk into one of these printers, as we have done many times, and you find them already engaged in this type of commerce. A case in point is with our own Carol Cannata. Once again this year, she designed a gift for the Women Influencers Brunch held the morning after our Annual Awards & Charities Dinner in November. Again, the gift was manufactured by EFI Reggiani with the boxes manufactured at a commercial printer in New Jersey. Carol met with the printer in their showroom to peruse decorative boxes and together they developed a custom box for the gift. The cost was ridiculously small for a project requiring 100 boxes.
Could there possibly be a fourth driver? You bet there is! It’s the need to diversify manufacturing and reduce production cost. Once again, HP is leading in the research of 3D printing for disbursed manufacturing. The company can now utilize metal, which greatly expands the potential of 3D printing.
Hard to think of a fifth for our industry, but that does not mean it does not exist. In fact, I am positive it does. My problem is I lack the imagination and ability to fully understand the enormous pressure building in our global environment by the forces of change.
The advances of science in developing nanotechnology is yet another aspect of something that may have a significant impact on our industry with the use of nano toner. That research has been ongoing for at least five years in Israel. (If you do not understand the term nanotechnology, we offer a simple definition. Nanotechnology was first utilized in developing supercomputers. It has been defined as the time it takes for the speed of light to travel 13 inches.)
If none of the things we have just shared with you make sense, we look forward to hearing or reading your vision of what the future will look like. You now have ours.
Access Related Content
Visit the www.thecannatareport.com. To become a subscriber, visit www.thecannatareport.com/register or contact cjcannata@cannatareport.com directly. Bulk subscription rates are also available.