Reflecting on the changes caused by COVID-19.
This article was actually supposed to be quite a different article—it was supposed to be about living and working in the “New Normal,” and how things are taking shape after emerging from 24 months of COVID-19 chaos.
But then, 48 hours changed our world. Again.
I tried several leads to this new article, like “After COVID kindergarten, we’re headed straight into the school of life.” Another one was, “I thought I took a surfing class when suddenly a tsunami hit,” and many more.
As my March 15 submission deadline loomed to submit the article, the news brought even more worrying details, including price hikes via surcharges to the closing of paper mills because of wood shortages and skyrocketing energy prices.
So, let’s review some of the ways that COVID-19 has changed things:
- COVID-19 has encouraged us to rethink the way we work, adopt a digital-first strategy where possible, and open up to more remote work.
- Emerging from COVID-19 on different continents in different countries has left us with a new landscape for in-person and online business.
- Supply-chain challenges remain as COVID-19 surges, e.g., in China, forcing companies to close production lines again (see Foxconn/iPhone).
- Most OEMs have minimal stock, if at all available, often lasting less than a week and with delivery times of up to six months for anything outside the “average.”
- The workforce emancipation had many of us reconsider how we hire, structure salaries, benefits, and more.
This list doesn’t end here but needs to be cut short for now.
Mid-February, most of our COVID-19 restrictions (I’m currently in Vienna, Austria) were lifted, sunshine warmed us, and the spring ahead raised our hopes for a successful 2022 with businesses recovering.
Not even two weeks later, a war started next door; the Ukraine border is just 500 miles away. You know the rest as well as I do.
Although industry experts project less impact on the European IT reseller market than most of us would expect, the humanitarian crisis is already incomprehensible; to date (March 14), 2.5-million refugees have arrived in Europe.
Ukraine is, among many things, an outsourcing partner for many European and U.S. companies, with a highly talented IT community supporting product development, graphic design, and support hotlines. Unfortunately, for now, many women-owned businesses and talent have had to leave the country; some are still trying to keep their services up, others… let’s not go there.
Let’s get back to economic predictions. Experts are probably correct in their projections that local dealerships won’t be directly affected by the war or the sanctions. However, OEMs and manufacturers most certainly will be. In Europe, the paper and packaging industry, already shaken by supply chain challenges, is now close to being paralyzed. Wood deliveries for paper production, coming from Russia and Belarus, have stopped as sanctions have set in. Softwood deliveries (for palettes) from Ukraine have stopped due to the war. Energy prices (gas/oil) have reached levels that have increased prices with unprecedented speed and height. These days, any product release (printing hardware/software) quickly changes focus from features to cost efficiency. How much energy does the device consume? How can I best calculate ink/toner usage ahead of time so neither customer nor print-services providers face unexpected surcharges/losses? Companies form never-before-seen alliances to purchase and distribute what they all need to keep their businesses afloat, i.e., machines up and running and customers happy. Most OEMs have pulled out and suspended doing business with Russia. How will they recover? At what, at whose cost?
What’s the plan? Should we, could we have had a plan? Yes and no. Neither for a pandemic nor a war can you ever be fully prepared. Contingency and disaster recovery plans can only predict, protect, and recover you from so much. But you can stay alert in a good way:
- Live, work in the now, don’t let your guard down.
- Never stop listening to your team, customers, partners, and industry experts.
- Educate yourself and your team whenever possible, never delay it.
- Don’t be afraid of change, à la “Never touch a running system,” instead, be courageous and take the lead.
- Don’t be scared of collaboration, reaching out to peers; not all business challenges need to end up in mergers and acquisitions.
- Be compassionate; pay it forward.
- Accept that there is neither a new normal nor a normal.
We’re living in times of challenges and changes. Embrace this as an opportunity, and you’ll be prepared.
Update March 21: The war in Ukraine is taking a toll on various manufacturers as supplies (what is left and ready for shipping) are being sent from Ukraine to the rest of Europe/the world. The food chain has experienced its first major disruptions, reaching as far as the Near and Middle East, and notes from our industry are hitting the press, raising concerns in both the hardware and software sectors about how long supplies and services will last.
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